Making his triumphant return to actually doing stuff for the site; Will.

YOUR BOTTLEGATE 2015 NBA FINALS PREVIEW

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS V. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

 

When: June 4^th-June 19^th

Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA; Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH

A wise man once told me that it’s better to wear the crown than to make a splash.

This is it Cleveland. We’ve been wandering around the barren desert for 51 years and we can finally see the tropical oasis.  We’ve almost reached it before- the Browns in 87 and 88, the Indians in 95 and 97 and another Cavs team in 07…  But each time it turned out to be a mirage. This time the only things standing in the way of us and sports paradise is a 6’2”, 180 lb. baby faced shooting machine who rides around on a mini horse; Stephen Curry, and the rest of the Golden State Warriors.

Keys to the series:

• Injuries: It sucks that this has to be the first thing listed but it could have a huge impact.  Kyrie’s damage has been well-documented. With his knee threatening to detach from his body at any second (as you would be led to believe) and his sore foot limiting any ability to drive to the hole and finish like we’re accustomed to seeing, the rest he’s gotten before game one with play a big role in how he performs in his first finals.  LeBron had what seemed like 4 or 5 “hold your breath” moments after he rolled his ankles or tweaked his back. But he’s a basketball cyborg so he bounced right back from each and every one.
•  For the Warriors, Steph Curry took a terrifying fall (Editor’s note: He was out for like a quarter because he can’t stay on his feet. Wimp) but returned the same game and played the next.  Klay Thompson took a Jon Jones UFC style knee to the head and was literally bleeding from the ear (“Coach said it’s OK to bleed from the ear”).  He continued to play that game (great concussion protocol NBA) and puking his brains out and unable to drive after the game.  He’s ready for game 1 but it’s worth monitoring whether he will show any lingering effects.

 

• Shooters vs. Shooters: During the regular season Golden State was 2^nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency. During the playoffs the Cavs are 1^st among playoff teams in that same category.  I don’t think anybody will be able to tell during the Finals. The reason: Good Lord can these teams shoot the rock. On the floor at any given time: Steph Curry, Kyrie, Klay, JR, Draymond Green, Shump, Harrison Barnes, James Jones, Iguodala, Delly, Leandro Barbosa and LeBron James.  The lowest regular season 3P% of that group is 33.7%. Almost every guard/wing in this series can shoot the three (need LeBron to bump that playoff 3P% to a little better than what he’s been shooting) so it’s going to be a matter of who is going to hit more. The Cavs need JR, Shump and Delly to stay en fuego and need LeBron to bust out of his shooting slump.

 

• Who guards Curry/Who guards LeBron: The real answer to both questions is no one. That won’t stop both coaches from trying though.
• Who is going to guard this guy?

Here are the best matchups for the Cavs against Curry:

• Shump
• LeBron James
• Delly
• Kyrie
• JR

The Warriors best Matchups for LeBron:

• Draymond Green
• Andre Iguodala
• Harrison Barnes
• Klay Thompson
• Just Kidding – None of the Above have a chance. Cavs in 4.

 

• Don’t allow the Splash Brothers to have big quarters: Obviously both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are going to score the ball and have some big games. Steph Curry is going to make three pointers so absurd you’ll throw shit against the wall and curse your parents for ever allowing you to be born. What the Cavs need to be wary of is allowing either of them to go off and change the complexion of a Finals game in a single quarter.  Klay’s NBA record 37 points in a single quarter was well publicized but you can’t forget that he had another game in which he went for 26 in 12 minutes.  Curry also had a game in which he got hot and scored 26 in one period.  If either guy goes for 20+ in a single quarter against the Cavs I’ll tell you right now that game will be a loss.

 

• Cavaliers need to dominate the boards: The Cavs swept the Hawks in large part due to absolute dominance on the glass.  If they can duplicate that effort against Golden State it’s going to go a long way towards winning a championship.  That’s not going to be easy seeing as Atlanta had no interest in even attempting to offensive rebound in the ECF and Golden State has some talented guys down low in Bogut and Draymond Green who both fight for the ball.  If Mozgov and Tristan do their thing and JR, Shump and LeBron make a concerted effort to chase down the long boards I think we can come out with a slight edge in the series and hopefully it will be the difference in a few games.

Other Thoughts:

I love how Golden State fans think their arena is such an intimidating place to play.  “Watch out, all this bright yellow is going to totally take you guys out of your rhythm!!” It doesn’t help that ESPN tries to make it out to be the 12^th Man (also overrated) of the NBA.  LeBron is going to have no problem silencing those bunch of Raider turned Warrior clowns. Go back to your shitty Black Hole with your dial up Internet and shut up.

If — and this is a big if – the Cavs can pull this off and win a title I’m secretly a little nervous what our fans might do to the city.  Like, if there isn’t a video of at least one car on fire I’m going to be pretty shocked.  Definitely taking a cab downtown the night we have a closeout game.

Klay Thompson must not be good friends with any of his teammates. If he had any real friends you’d think one of them would have told him a while ago that “Bro, maybe that goatee isn’t the best look for you…actually, it’s not. It isn’t. Shave. Shave your face.”

This series goes a long way towards LeBron’s legacy. Win and he gets to 3-3 in NBA finals, ends a 51 year drought in Cleveland, and positions the team to repeat next year.  Lose and he falls to 2-4, the narrative becomes losing 4 finals, and people begin to wonder if his window is closing.

X-Factors:

Golden State – Draymond Green: The ultimate glue guy.  He makes the right play all the time, does the dirty work, and is a shit talker the other team loves to hate. And god do I HATE him.  The true x-factor value he holds is in how well he defends LeBron this series.  He finished 2^nd in DPOY voting so I think he’ll be a tough test for the King.

Cleveland – JR Smith:  Who would have guessed JR would have gone from wasting away on the Knicks to hitting series changing shots in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  If the Cavs want to win the 2015 Finals JR is going to need to shoot the ball every bit as well as he did against Chicago and Atlanta.  In those series he was 50% from the field and 46% from 3.  After LeBron and Kyrie, he needs to be a consistent 3^rd scoring option on offense.

 

My prediction (besides Cavs in 4)

Cavs in 6. 

Gonna start pricing out parade outfits.

Also, I’m headed to Oracle Arena this weekend for game 2 of the NBA Finals. Follow along on the Bottlegate Snap Chat while I get greasy in Oakland and hopefully don’t get stabbed to death. (hopefully no Raiders fans read this. Ha JK they don’t have computers nor know how to read)

Username: Bottlegate