Tag Archives: betting

Kevin Hogan Should Start, Football Betting Tips, And The Tribe

The Bottlegate “staff” has officially grown from 2 to 3. Excited to welcome Dan Whalen to the team.

Here’s his new weekly column (we’ll think of a name for it soon.) Go give him a follow on Twitter at  @dwhalen5


Like most of you, I felt no need to tune into the Browns game this weekend. Misery turned to apathy a while back-if I can remember correctly, for me it happened right around the time Johnny Manziel was drafted by Ray Farmer and the gang. So I’ll start my weekly diaTribe of five feelings here:

1. I’m not revealing anything you don’t already know when it comes to the team, the franchise, the management yada, yada…but I came instead to shed some light on the quarterback situation and how it should play out for the remainder of the year, since they, ya know, passed on the guy I touted as the best in the draft, on the day of the draft. See: @dwhalen5, dak in your closest twitter search bar. Do you know we’ve had EIGHT general managers since 1999?

The Browns have to go with Kevin Hogan as long as they can, until and maybe even after Kessler is healthy. And I’m not “stats tell the full story” guy at all, but if you go back and look at Andrew Luck vs Kevin Hogan, you get ALARMINGLY similar statistics and win/loss records when comparing the two. Except Hogan went 3-1 in bowl games and Luck wend 1-2. But WHATEVER. Point is, the kid can make plays, he learned from the best, in arguably the most pro-friendly offensive college system there is, and quite honestly, sometimes the second quarterback you draft just ends up being better than the first. So drop the ego, change the culture, and let the kid sling it while Kessler picks his fragile ass back up off the ground.

Otherwise, they may miss out on him altogether, he’ll go be a stud for somebody else, and we will draft another shitshow who sets the squad back another three years.

 

2. I fancy myself a bit of a football handicapper, especially when it comes to picking the correct underdogs on the money line. So here are a few picks for the weekend:

A) Va Tech to cover -4.5 at Pitt for a little Thursday night action if you’re itching to make a play before the weekend. I think the defense is too good, and Pitt’s defense is woefully bad. When Pitt plays good teams, they lose.

B) Washington -10 at Utah. Huskies are the real deal. And they’ve got a hell of a defense. I get to watch Utah every single week due to rooming up with a former Ute footballer, and their offense has a tendency to sputter at times when they get inside the red-zone. This game will have some turnovers, and they’ll all come from the red and black side of the football. Pac-12 south runs through Colorado this year.

C) Auburn -4.5 at Ole Miss. There’s a trend this week with the road favorites, but trust me that’s coincidence-like I mentioned above, I’m an underdog guy. However, if you witnessed what LSU did to Ole Miss on the ground last week (312 yds/8.6 avg), and you had a chance to see Auburn’s ground game against Arkansas (543 yds/9.5 avg), then you should see that this could be another bloodbath of sorts. Even with Chad Kelly being night and day when he plays at

home vs on the road, he ain’t getting in a 3-technique to stop the deluge.

 D) Cowboys -4 vs Eagles. The Eagles are a different team when they have to travel. And not a single defense has shown they can stop Zeke. Cowboys have been money at home. Oh, and Dak.

E) Underdogs to keep an eye on straight up: Navy, Texas Tech, Nebraska, Arizona State, Redskins, Lions, Raiders

3. Also, was happy to see that Indians beat writer Paul Hoynes took this kind of chilly dip instead of this kind of chili dip for losing a bet to a clever Tribe fan. One time I’m sure he’s happy to be wrong.

4. The only thing better than being there when the banner is raised tonight in Cleveland, is being there tomorrow night for game two, which I’m pretty jacked up for.

5. That said, with respect to my most beloved franchise in town since age seven, I’m going with Indians in six games, starting with Kluber tonight. From my perch here in Chicago, Cubs fans are a bit out over their skis and are already planning their parade. And if we know anything about being underdogs, it’s that they play these games for a reason, and you shouldn’t count anyone out before the fact, because you never know when you might blow a 3-1 lead in The Finals.

PS: If you couldn’t tell this was supposed to be posted last night but Austin and I were downtown all afternoon. Stay tuned for the next installment on Tuesday.

I Am Officially Betting On The Browns Every Game For The Rest Of The Season

Yep. It’s been decided and written in stone.

I will officially be betting on the Browns to cover in every game for the rest of the 2016 season. I’m removing all emotion from the actual outcome of the game and just focusing on the spread and if the Browns cover that spread. As the Browns continue to lose this season, the betting lines will continue to get more favorable for the Browns. I can totally see them being two touchdown underdogs at home in week 5 when Tom Brady comes back.

Most likely the Browns won’t be favored in any game during the 2016 season aside from MAYBE when they host the Chargers. That way, when they actually fall ass backwards into somehow winning a game, I’ll have double satisfaction that weekend; a win and a cover. Even if they lose the actual game but cover that +11 spread, it’ll still be a win for me and I won’t get that “fuck everything I want to jump off a bridge” feeling on Mondays. It’s possibly the best attempt to find some happiness in this Season of Nothingness.

Is this a smart and sound betting strategy? Nope. It’s all emotional and zero mental. In reality, the Browns will probably go 6-9-1 against the spread this year and I’ll lose hundreds of dollars… but those 6 wins will be so so sweet.

money burn cash burning shovel

Browns season record against the spread the past 4 years:

  • 2012:  8-7-1
  • 2013: 6-10
  • 2014: 9-5-2
  • 2015: 5-10-1
  • 4 year total: 28-32-4

Not the best history but then again no team has ever come back from a 3-1 NBA Finals deficit so maybe things will fall into place.

GIVE ME THE BROWNS +7 OR GIVE ME DEATH

mccownwitness

 

Bottlegate’s Super Bowl Betting Guide (Prop bets galore!)

Like every other red-blodded American you’ll be sitting in front of a TV, beer in one hand, pizza in the other, ready to watch the Patriots and Seahawks square off in Super Bowl 49. If you’re like me you probably have at least 10 or 11 different bets ready to go for the game. Aside from the normal betting lines, over/unders, player props, you’ll be throwing your hard earned money on the dumb random asinise stuff like the National Anthem length, coin flip, and the color of Katy Perry’s hair. There’s no greater thrill than betting the rent on the color of a pop star’s hair when she performs at halftime. It’s what separates the men from the boys.

The Super Bowl is when we’re gonna thrive. All of the countless & countless & COUNTLESS bets you lost during the fall football season are erased Sunday. Things like betting Ohio State football to win under 10 games and/or betting the Cavs to win over 59 games (I did both of these oops) are nullified once you nail that Gatorade shower color.

Let’s make some money Sunday

 

The Game

Patriots (-1.5) v Seahawks

OVER/UNDER 47.5

I don’t think Belichick & Brady lose 3 Super Bowls in a row. No way no how. With all the bullshit that’s been surrounding them the past 2 weeks I think they come out strong and win pretty handily.

Pick: Patriots and OVER

 

Player Prop Bets

 

First player to score a touchdown
Marshawn Lynch +450 BET Rob Gronkowski +500 BET
LeGarrette Blount +700 BET Julian Edelman +800 BET
Doug Baldwin +1,200 BET Russell Wilson +1,200 BET
Brandon LaFell +1,400 BET Shane Vereen +1,500 BET
Luke Willson +1,600 BET Jermaine Kearse +1,600 BET
Robert Turbin +2,000 BET Danny Amendola +2,500 BET
Cooper Helfet +3,000 BET Tom Brady +3,000 BET
Field (Any Other Player) +500 BET No Touchdown Scored +15,000 BET

I’ve never gotten one of these right so we’ll throw some money on Marshawn Lynch, Julian Edelman, and Shane Vereen.

 

 

All Other Prop Bets

 

OVER/UNDER National Anthem Length

Over- 2 minutes 1 second -140

Under- 2 minutes 1 second EVEN

The anthem is being sung by Idina Menzel (you know, the chick who sings Let It Go from Frozen)

 

Here’s her rendition at the 2014 All Star game. As you can see she’s SLOW. Dragging out notes, dramatic pauses, all that jazz. In her All-Star game rendition she was 1 minute 59.44 seconds. That’s just for the MLB All Star game which has what, like 1,000 viewers? The Super Bowl is the biggest stage in the world and Idina is gonna milk this thing.

Pick: OVER

Coin Toss

Haven’t gotten a coin toss wrong since Rams-Patriots.

Pick: TAILS

 

Which coach will be mentioned first after kickoff?
Which coach will be shown first on TV after kickoff?

Belichick -150 (both)

Pete Carroll +110 (both)

The beginning of the game is always about Belichick. It doesn’t matter who gets the ball first it’s going to be “And let’s see what Bill Belichick and the Patriots can do on offense” or “let’s see what Bill Belichick and the Patriots can do on defense.” This Super Bowl is all about Bill and the Patriots, don’t let anyone tell you differently.

Pick: Belichick for both bets

 

Bill Belichick hoodie style

Sleeves: +145

Sleeves cut: -185

The game is being played in a climate controlled environment. Everyone is saying no sleeves. You know Bill is aware of this prop bet  and you know he’s aware that the cut sleeves are the favorite. This is why I’m picking sleeves. Bill is gonna give everyone the middle finger and stick it to the public once again.

Pick: Sleeves

 

Will “Uptown Funk” be used in a Super Bowl commercial?

Yes: +500

No: -100

You can’t walk five feet without hearing Bruno Mars belting out “Dont believe me just watch!” This song is EVERYWHERE. You know some commercial or movie trailer that’s shown in the third or fourth quarter will have it as their background music. This right here is my bet of the day.  Hammer it.

Pick: YES

 

How many viewers will the game have

Over 113 million: -300

Under 113 million: +200

Here are the viewership numbers for the past 5 Super Bowls

  • 44- 106 million
  • 45- 111 million
  • 46- 111.3 million
  • 47- 108.4 million
  • 48- 111.5 million

It’s been hovering in the 111-111.5 million range the past 4 years and I think this 2 week layoff that the NFL does kinda makes the game lose some momentum. However, with all the social media, with deflategate being a national talking point, and with Katy Perry performing at halftime, this game is going over 113 million.

Pick: OVER 113 million viewers

 

Katy Perry’s first song

Firework (3-2); Roar (3-2); This is How We Do (5-1); Dark Horse (12-1); E.T. (12-1); Wide Awake (12-1); Waking Up in Vegas (20-1)

Everyone and their mother is picking Roar but I don’t see it as a good opening song. I feel like Roar is more of a “rising action” song that builds to the climax (last song) which will undoubtedly be Firework. Wide Awake has that it factor, it just sounds like an opener to me.

Her last 10 shows have opened with Roar (yes I researched). You think she’s going to open with the same setlist she’s been using? Get the hell out of here. This is the Super Bowl, she’s switching things up… If it’s not Wide Awake then E.T. is another strong candidate as well.

Pick: Wide Awake

 

Will Katy Perry show cleavage?

Yes -500

No +350

Tens of millions of men across the United States will be heartbroken if it’s a no. Therefore it SHOULD be a yes. Do the right thing, Katy. Let ’em breathe.

Pick: YES

 

Katy Perry’s hair color

Black/Brown (2-1); Pink/Red (3-1); Blue/Green (3-1); Blonde (4-1); Purple (5-1)

It’s either going to be normal black/brown or purple. I don’t like the 2/1 odds for black so I’m going with purple.

Pick: PURPLE

 

A commercial will feature under-inflated footballs

Yes: +1,000

No: -1,000

Admittedly I don’t think that any commercial using Deflategate as a joke will sneak past the NFL but these odds are just too good to pass up. You’ve gotta throw a couple of bucks on yes and hope for a big payout.

Pick: YES

 

Gatorade Shower Color
  • Orange 3/2
  • Yellow 5/2
  • Clear/Water 3/1
  • Blue 13/2
  • Red 15/2
  • Green 12/1

Essentially this comes down to which team you think is going to win and what color Gatorade you think they’ll be drinking for the game. I’m picking the Patriots to win. In their past 3 Super Bowl wins they’ve had clear, and then twice have had no Gatorade bath because Belichick hates fun… I don’t know why but I’m leaning red. Wildcard, bitches.

Pick: Red

 

Who will the MVP thank first?
Teammates
8/5
God
2/1
Fans/City
6/1
Owner
12/1
Coach
15/1
Family
15/1
Does not mention any of the above
5/2

 

Again, this bet focuses mostly on who you think will win the game. If the Patriots win I think the MVP will be Brady or Gronk. Brady is 100% going to thank his teammates or the organization while Gronk will probably thank Fireball  whisky or the person who invented 69’ing.

If you think the Seahawks will win, Russell Wilson is a good pick for MVP. He’s undoubtedly thanking God. Now if the Seahawks win we have to pray that Marshawn Lynch somehow wins the MVP and thanks himself or just doesn’t talk at all.

Pick: Teammates